Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.15% or above
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
4.2% or above
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$581
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.54
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.15% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.14
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.44
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.49
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.34
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.29
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.39
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.24
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.2% or above
KXUST7AM-26JUL31-T4.19
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the 7-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.39% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks from now. The 93% odds suggest traders view this threshold as highly likely given current yield levels and near-term momentum. Treasury yields are primarily driven by inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and economic data releases. Key near-term catalysts include employment reports, inflation readings (CPI/PCE), and any Fed communication about interest rates. The relatively narrow timeframe (23 days) limits potential for dramatic yield swings, though geopolitical events or unexpected economic data could shift expectations. The contract structure shows declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (4.54%+ trades at just 12%), indicating markets see significant upside movement as unlikely within this window.
- ›Current 7-year Treasury yield is near or above 4.39%, making the threshold achievable with minimal movement
- ›Employment and inflation data releases scheduled before July 31 could trigger volatility but would need to significantly exceed expectations to prevent the threshold breach
- ›Federal Reserve communications and any rate-cut or rate-hold signals will influence yield direction over the next three weeks
- ›The contract expires in 23 days, limiting time for multi-percentage-point yield declines that would be needed to keep yields below 4.39%
- ›Market pricing shows declining probability at higher yield levels (4.54% only 12% likely), suggesting consensus expects yields to remain in a contained range
What moved the line
- Jul 84.15% or above↑32pp63→95¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.25% or above↑23pp49→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.3% or above↑17pp48→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.2% or above↑16pp60→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.4% or above↑12pp33→45¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
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- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%last 14% · 8d
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%last 10% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Fed Stay-or-Cut: Market Hawks Win as Rate Cut Hopes Fade
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in July (79¢ for no hike) with the market pricing zero rate cuts for all of 2026 at 76¢. Core CPI expectations remain sticky at 77% probability of rising more than 0.1% in June, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative. Traders should watch the KXFEDDECISION series for July and September meetings.
Fed Set to Hold Steady as Rate Cut Hopes Fade for 2026
The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold rates at the July 2026 meeting (84¢ probability), and the market sees zero rate cuts through December as the base case at 75¢. This hawkish posture supports the dollar and bond yields while challenging risk assets.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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