Crude oil $120 contract jumps 6¢ as supply fears escalate
Oil prediction markets are pricing in higher prices, with the probability of WTI hitting $120 by end of June surging 6¢ to 48¢. The move is fueled by Hormuz disruption and strong physical demand.
Key takeaways
- 01
Oil prediction markets are pricing in higher prices, with the probability of WTI hitting $120 by end of June surging 6¢ to 48¢.
- 02
The move is fueled by Hormuz disruption and strong physical demand.
- 03
Oil markets are heating up across traditional and prediction markets.
Full analysis
Oil markets are heating up across traditional and prediction markets. Spot WTI futures (USO) rose 4.04% to $139, while natural gas (UNG) jumped 5.9% to $11.22. In prediction markets, the 'Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $120 by end of June?' contract saw a 6¢ increase to 48¢ on volume of 11.5k, making it the top mover. The 'Will Crude Oil hit $130?' contract also rose 3¢ to 33¢. These moves are consistent with the sustained risk premium from the Strait of Hormuz situation. Notably, the 'WTI front-month settle >101.99 on May 15' contract is at 41¢ (vol 17.3k), indicating near-term upside. The 'Brent crude close >104.99' is at 52¢. With geopolitical risk elevated and inventory draws, the trend remains bullish. However, traders should watch the 'Will Crude Oil hit $200?' (4¢) as a tail risk. The combination of geopolitical and demand factors makes oil the standout macro theme today.
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