How do I track oil & energy prediction markets in real time?

SimpleFunctions aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket into a single live feed — the Oil & Energy index at /predictions/oil bundles every related contract with current price, 24h volume, and cross-venue gaps.

July 9, 2026·Oil & Energy·Updated 13h ago

Oil Prices Surge 4% as Energy Markets Price in Sustained $70+ Crude

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

WTI crude oil rallied 4% today, with prediction markets showing 84% probability of prices staying above $70.49 through July 10. The energy sector (XLE) gained 1.87%, while stock markets were mixed. Traders are increasingly pricing in a meaningful chance of a major supply disruption, with the $115+ spike contract for year-end trading at 31¢.

Key takeaways

01
WTI crude oil rallied 4% today, with prediction markets showing 84% probability of prices staying above $70.49 through July 10.
02
The energy sector (XLE) gained 1.87%, while stock markets were mixed.
03
Traders are increasingly pricing in a meaningful chance of a major supply disruption, with the $115+ spike contract for year-end trading at 31¢.

Full analysis

Oil markets are flashing strong signals today as WTI crude oil surged 4% to trade at $113.26 on the USO ETF, while the energy sector (XLE) gained 1.87%. The prediction market landscape reflects this bullish sentiment with remarkable precision. The most liquid contract, KXWTI-26JUL1014-T70. (price: 84¢, volume: 38,781), shows the market assigns an 84% probability to WTI settling above $70.49 on July 10. This is reinforced by KXWTI-26JUL1014-T71. (79¢, volume: 38,665) and KXWTI-26JUL1014-T72. (63¢, volume: 47,063), showing a clear probability cascade. The tail-risk contract KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11 (31¢, volume: 18,323) indicates that traders see a 31% chance of prices hitting $115+ by year-end, consistent with ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where weekly transit calls are expected to be 150-200 (KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL at 60¢, volume: 14,619). For macro traders, these contracts offer a direct way to hedge energy exposure or express views on inflation, supply shocks, and geopolitical risk. The tight 1¢ spreads on the near-term WTI contracts suggest deep liquidity and efficient pricing, making them attractive for both hedging and speculative positioning.