Oil Pressure Mounts as WTI April Contracts Reprice Lower
With USO down 2.24% today, prediction markets for WTI in April are seeing broad repricing downward. The ↑$105 contract dropped 7 cents, ↑$110 fell 4 cents, and ↑$100 fell 4 cents — while Hormuz normalization by May gained 5 cents to 39¢. The tension between Iran conflict (bullish oil) and Hormuz reopening expectations (bearish oil) is playing out in real-time.
Key takeaways
- 01
With USO down 2.24% today, prediction markets for WTI in April are seeing broad repricing downward.
- 02
The ↑$105 contract dropped 7 cents, ↑$110 fell 4 cents, and ↑$100 fell 4 cents — while Hormuz normalization by May gained 5 cents to 39¢.
- 03
The tension between Iran conflict (bullish oil) and Hormuz reopening expectations (bearish oil) is playing out in real-time.
Full analysis
Today's 2.24% decline in USO is being reflected rapidly in prediction market pricing. The Polymarket WTI April series shows a consistent pattern of upside strikes being sold: '↑$105 by April' (0x3cdf6fa07ce061ab6c) dropped the most at -7 cents to 27¢ on $41,898 volume; '↑$110' (0x35d8c42a467d4e485f) fell -4¢ to 14¢; '↑$100' (0x65414628f108533d68) dropped -4¢ to 60¢; and even '↑$120' (0x7eceae72d7d7b3e175) lost -3¢ to 5¢.
The critical counterpoint is the Strait of Hormuz normalization market. 'Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?' (0x518a5b030b205706b8) surged +5¢ to 39¢ on $200,383 — the largest Iran-related mover today. This creates an interesting spread trade: if you believe Hormuz normalizes by May (39¢), you might also want to fade the ↑$100 by April contract (60¢) as reduced conflict risk should weigh on oil.
Kalshi WTI contracts for April 27 settlement are pricing WTI at ~$92-96 range: KXWTI-26APR27-T91.99 at 94¢ and KXWTI-26APR27-T94.99 at 71¢, suggesting the market's point estimate for today's WTI close is approximately $93-95. The minimum April settle contracts KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T8 are near certainty (98-99¢) for $84 and $86 minimums, confirming floors are holding.
The broader picture: US military action against Iran has disrupted Hormuz shipping, which initially spiked oil, but markets now increasingly believe the conflict resolves before it causes a sustained supply shock. Traders should watch the Hormuz normalization contracts (0x518a5b030b205706b8) as the primary leading indicator for oil direction.
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