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April 22, 2026·Oil & Energy·Older · 2mo ago

Oil Shock: WTI $95 Surges +21¢, $100 at 38¢ as USO Rallies +5%

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Today's oil market shock from the Iran/Hormuz escalation sent WTI prediction markets into sharp repricing. The $95 contract surged +21¢ to 64¢ and $100 gained +6¢ to 38¢. The ↓$75 market dropped -11¢ to 20¢ reflecting dramatically reduced downside risk expectations.

Key takeaways

01
Today's oil market shock from the Iran/Hormuz escalation sent WTI prediction markets into sharp repricing.
02
The $95 contract surged +21¢ to 64¢ and $100 gained +6¢ to 38¢.
03
The ↓$75 market dropped -11¢ to 20¢ reflecting dramatically reduced downside risk expectations.

Full analysis

The traditional oil market (USO +5.09%, XLE +1.4%) and prediction markets moved in lockstep today following the confirmed US forces seizing an oil tanker and Hormuz disruption signals. The Polymarket WTI price ladder shows dramatic repricing:

- WTI hitting ↑$95 in April (0x8dcfbd82b6c49a15cc): surged +21¢ to 64¢ on $65k volume - WTI hitting ↑$100 in April (0x65414628f108533d68): +6¢ to 38¢ on $98k volume - WTI hitting ↑$105 in April (0x3cdf6fa07ce061ab6c): +4¢ to 24¢ on $57k volume - WTI hitting ↑$110 in April (0x35d8c42a467d4e485f): +1¢ to 16¢ - WTI hitting ↓$75 in April (0xd0e2e14b101cd9fa15): crashed -11¢ to 20¢ - WTI hitting ↓$85 in April (0x0f9ca7dcd30c615e67): fell -11¢ to 82¢ - WTI hitting ↓$80 in April (0x4ea2cd49c462b6eab3): -13¢ to 45¢

The Kalshi WTI settle markets show KXWTI-26APR22 contracts — the >$89.99 settle is at 39¢, >$88.99 at 48¢, >$87.99 at 58¢. For Thursday April 24, KXWTIW markets show the >$90.99 settle at 39¢.

The Crude Oil by June end markets on Polymarket offer longer-dated exposure: ↑$115 by June is 38¢ (+2¢), ↑$120 by June is 28¢ (+1¢), while ↓$70 by June is 42¢. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 (0xdb7160b3dd09ea1ec2) at 3¢ (+1¢) remains a deep lottery ticket.

Key trade: The WTI $100 April market at 38¢ with good liquidity and spread is the most actionable position for oil bulls given the current trajectory.