Oil Surges as Strait of Hormuz Blockade Persists, Traders Eye $110 Crude
Oil prices rallied 3.85% as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues. Polymarket gives only 8% odds of normal traffic by end of May, while crude contracts price a 55% chance of $110 oil by end of June. Traders should monitor KXWTIW and KXBRENTW series.
Key takeaways
- 01
Oil prices rallied 3.85% as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues.
- 02
Traders should monitor KXWTIW and KXBRENTW series.
- 03
Oil markets are surging amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Full analysis
Oil markets are surging amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, is seeing reduced traffic due to a US blockade, with Polymarket contracts showing only an 8% probability of a return to normal transit by end of May. Crude oil futures are reflecting this geopolitical risk premium, with WTI settling near $102 and Polymarket contracts pricing a 55% chance of oil hitting $110 by end of June. Traders should focus on the KXWTIW series for daily WTI settlement prices, the KXBRENTW series for Brent exposure, and Polymarket's 'Will Crude Oil hit $140 by end of June?' contract currently trading at 19¢. The key catalyst to watch is any announcement from Trump regarding lifting the blockade, with Polymarket showing only a 23% probability for a May 31 announcement. A sustained closure of the Strait would directly impact global supply chains and energy prices, making this the most actionable geopolitical trade in the market right now.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
Zoom out
sf book KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.99