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April 24, 2026·Oil & Energy·Older · 2mo ago

Oil Surging on Iran Conflict — WTI $100 Strike Hits 74¢ as Hormuz Fears Grow

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

USO is up +4.47% today and WTI crude prediction markets are moving sharply. The WTI $100 April strike jumped +12¢ to 74¢, the $110 strike gained +7¢ to 30¢, and Hormuz normalization markets are falling. This is directly linked to the ongoing US-Iran military conflict consuming top prediction market volume.

Key takeaways

01
USO is up +4.47% today and WTI crude prediction markets are moving sharply.
02
The WTI $100 April strike jumped +12¢ to 74¢, the $110 strike gained +7¢ to 30¢, and Hormuz normalization markets are falling.
03
This is directly linked to the ongoing US-Iran military conflict consuming top prediction market volume.

Full analysis

The oil price shock is real and prediction markets are pricing it aggressively. With USO up +4.47% and XLE energy sector up +0.77%, the Iran-US conflict is now bleeding directly into commodity pricing. On Polymarket, the 'WTI hits $100 in April' market (0x65414628f108533d68) surged to 74¢ today (+12¢), making this one of the top movers across all markets. The '$110 in April' contract (0x35d8c42a467d4e485f) gained +7¢ to 30¢, and '$105 in April' (0x3cdf6fa07ce061ab6c) is at 46¢ (+11¢). Meanwhile, Kalshi's KXWTIW-26APR24-T77 sits at 89¢ for WTI above $90.99 tomorrow, and KXWTI-26APR24-T94.99 is at 64¢ for above $94.99. The Strait of Hormuz normalization market for end of May (0x518a5b030b205706b8) dropped -3¢ to 36¢, confirming the market expects prolonged disruption. The April 30 normalization market sits at just 4¢. Kalshi's KXHORMUZNORM markets are also showing very low readings for transit returning to normal. The Brent crude market on Kalshi (KXBRENTW-26APR2417) for above $103.99 sits at 34¢. For traders: the oil spike is correlated with the Iran military operations ending timeline — the Trump ending Iran ops by May 31 market collapsed -13¢ to 37¢ today (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605). If you believe the conflict extends, the WTI higher-strike contracts and Hormuz disruption markets offer leveraged exposure. The KXWTIMAX-26DEC31 end-of-year maximum price markets also deserve attention, with $120 at 55¢ and $150 at 34¢.