Will St. John's win the College Basketball National Championship

The yield curve for KXMARMAD displays a completely flat structure, with all 33 constituent markets sharing an identical tenor of 233 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities range from 1.0% to 12.0%, with the cheapest probabilities concentrated among multiple markets priced at 1.0% (ALA, BYU, IND, IOWA, ISU, MIA, NEB, PUR, UCLA, USC, VAN, VILL). The highest probability markets are FLA at 12.0% and DUKE at 11.0%, while mid-range probabilities cluster around 2.0% to 6.0%. The distribution is notably wide relative to the single tenor, suggesting substantial heterogeneity in perceived outcomes rather than temporal uncertainty. The flat tenor structure indicates that the market has no meaningful term premium or temporal expectations embedded in pricing—all uncertainty is concentrated at the single 233-day resolution point rather than distributed across multiple time horizons. This suggests the event family (likely NCAA March Madness tournament outcomes) is perceived as a discrete, single-point event with no intermediate milestones that would create a yield curve. The wide dispersion of probabilities across the 1.0% to 12.0% range reflects genuine disagreement about which specific outcome will occur, not disagreement about timing. The market is essentially saying: "This event resolves in 233 days, and we're uncertain which of these 33 outcomes materializes, but we're confident about the timing."