Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

The prediction market exhibits a completely flat yield curve, with all 44 constituent markets sharing an identical tenor of 166 days to resolution. This structural uniformity means there is no traditional steepening, flattening, or inversion pattern to observe. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities range dramatically from 1.0% (Arkansas, Oklahoma State, James Madison, Tulane, UNT, UVA, Virginia Tech, Washington) to 26.0% (Ohio State), revealing substantial dispersion in individual team probabilities rather than a term structure effect. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the 1.0% level across eight teams, while the most expensive reside with Ohio State at 26.0%, followed by Notre Dame at 24.0% and Oregon and Texas tied at 23.0%. Since all markets resolve on the same date 166 days forward, the market cannot express differentiated timing expectations through the yield curve mechanism. Instead, the probability distribution reflects the market's current assessment of which teams are most likely to reach the College Football Playoff finals, conditional on that event occurring within the fixed window. The high concentration of probability mass on Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Texas—combined with the long tail of sub-5% probabilities for most other teams—suggests the market views this event as driven by team quality and playoff seeding dynamics rather than temporal uncertainty. Trading volume concentrates on Texas ($760.09), UGA ($552.85), and Mizzou ($264.97), indicating these represent the most contested probability assessments among active participants.