Fresno St. wins

The yield curve for this college football event family displays a remarkably flat structure across all observed tenors, with both the 14-day and 15-day buckets clustering around similar probability levels. Within the 14-day tenor, YES probabilities for favored outcomes range from 86% to 99%, while underdog positions trade between 1% and 8%. The 15-day bucket shows nearly identical pricing, with favorites at 92-97% and underdogs at 1-13%. This flatness indicates minimal term premium or temporal repricing across the short observation window. The cheapest YES probabilities consistently appear on underdog positions across both tenors, trading at 1-8% for 14-day markets and 1-13% for 15-day markets, suggesting the market assigns these teams minimal win probability regardless of the specific resolution date. The flat yield curve structure implies the market views the event outcomes as largely predetermined and imminent, with resolution occurring within the next two weeks. The absence of steepening or inversion suggests no meaningful uncertainty about timing—the market is not pricing in scenarios where outcomes become more or less certain as the event approaches. The consistent probability levels across tenors indicate high confidence in the underlying matchup results rather than evolving information flow. The concentration of trading volume on extreme probabilities (very high for favorites, very low for underdogs) reinforces this view: the market has already formed strong convictions about which teams will win, and these convictions remain stable across the short time horizons represented in the data.