Will Cooper Rush be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 39 constituent markets, with every position sharing an identical 22-day tenor to resolution. Within this flat maturity bucket, probabilities display extreme heterogeneity rather than a traditional term structure. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0% across 15 markets (including positions like KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-26SEP15ATL-CRUS, multiple CLE markets, and several others), while the most expensive YES probabilities reach 94.0% (PIT-AROD) and 93.0% (KC-PMAH). This wide dispersion—spanning 93 percentage points within the same tenor—indicates that pricing variation reflects fundamental differences in event outcomes rather than time-decay dynamics. The high-volume markets show concentrated conviction: CLE-DWAT trades 75% YES with $108M in 24-hour volume, while CLE-SSAN trades 23% YES with $163M in volume, suggesting substantial disagreement on specific outcomes. The flat tenor structure combined with this probability dispersion reveals that the market views the event resolution as imminent and binary across multiple simultaneous outcomes. Since all markets resolve in 22 days, the curve offers no information about temporal expectations—instead, the probability distribution across different quarterback-team pairings suggests the market is pricing the likelihood of specific starting QB assignments for Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season. The concentration of volume in high-conviction positions (75%, 90%, 91%, 93%, 94%) alongside numerous 1-5% positions indicates the market has crystallized expectations around a small set of probable starters while assigning minimal probability to alternative candidates. The structure implies near-term certainty about which outcomes will materialize, with