Will Adrien Rabiot score the most goals for France in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 72 constituent markets, with every market sharing an identical 17-day tenor. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display extreme heterogeneity, ranging from 1.0% to 99.0%, reflecting stark differences in individual player assessments rather than a traditional term structure. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, appearing across 27 markets including multiple "NONE" outcomes and lower-profile players like CROMER17, JALVAR19, and LMARTI6. Conversely, the highest probabilities concentrate on star players: LMESSI10 and EHAALA9 both trade at 99.0%, while KMBAPP10 reaches 96.0%, MOYARZ10 hits 85.0%, and HKANE9 sits at 67.0%. Trading volume concentrates heavily on these high-probability favorites, with KMBAPP10 showing $3,643.98 in 24-hour volume and EHAALA9 generating $2,931.88, suggesting market confidence in elite player outcomes. The flat tenor structure with uniform 17-day resolution indicates the market is pricing a single, imminent event window rather than distributing probability across multiple time horizons. The extreme probability dispersion—not driven by time decay but by player-specific factors—reveals the market views this event as binary and near-term: either a specific player scores the opening goal within 17 days, or they don't. The concentration of volume and high probabilities on marquee names suggests strong consensus that if a goal occurs, it will come from established elite performers. The 1.0% floor on numerous alternatives and the "NONE" outcomes