Will all teams in Group A collectively score at least 10 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

The yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across all 18-day tenors, with probabilities declining sharply as goal thresholds increase. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster in the highest goal brackets, where markets price 1-5% odds for outcomes at 20+ goals across most groups. The steepest declines occur between the 14-18 goal range, where probabilities drop from 50-95% down to 5-20%. Lower goal thresholds (10-14) command substantially higher probabilities, ranging from 76-95%, indicating strong consensus that modest goal totals are highly likely. This steep downward slope is consistent across all eight groups (A through L), suggesting the market views total goals as a bounded outcome with a well-defined central tendency rather than an open-ended distribution. The shape of this curve reveals the market's conviction that the event will produce a moderate number of total goals concentrated in the 12-16 range, with rapidly diminishing tail probabilities on both sides. The clustering of all markets at exactly 18 days to resolution means this is not a traditional term structure but rather a cross-sectional snapshot of strike-level pricing. The steep negative slope indicates the market assigns minimal probability to extreme outcomes—either very low (under 10 goals) or very high (over 20 goals)—while treating mid-range totals as nearly certain. This distribution pattern suggests participants expect a well-defined, relatively predictable outcome rather than high uncertainty about the final tally.