Blog
Prediction market analysis, strategies, and research. 4 articles.
Why Soccer Is the Best Sport for Live Market Making (And Basketball Is the Worst)
Not all sports are equal for live market making. The math comes down to event frequency × price impact × time between events. Soccer wins by a wide margin.
Sports Market Making vs Sports Betting: $5M/Month in Rewards Most People Ignore
99% of Polymarket sports participants are betting. Almost nobody is making markets. The reward pool is $5M/month with minimal competition.
The Quadratic Edge: Why Tighter Beats Bigger in Polymarket Market Making
Polymarket scores market makers with a quadratic function. Most people miss what this means: being 2x closer to the midpoint is worth 4x the score. The optimal strategy is not what you think.
Sports Market Making on Prediction Markets: Pre-Game, Live, and the $5M Monthly Opportunity
Polymarket pays millions to market makers who quote sports events. Here is what market making actually means, how it differs from betting, and why the pre-game and live phases require completely different systems.