How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. This market is pricing in only a 7% chance of atmospheric CO2 reaching 460 ppm by end-2029, despite current concentrations around 420-422 ppm requiring just an 9% increase over roughly 5 years—a pace well below historical trends of 2-3 ppm annually.
Analysis
This market is pricing in only a 7% chance of atmospheric CO2 reaching 460 ppm by end-2029, despite current concentrations around 420-422 ppm requiring just an 9% increase over roughly 5 years—a pace well below historical trends of 2-3 ppm annually. The extreme 870.8% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and just $623 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the 4¢ spread indicating low confidence in price discovery. The 32 Cliff Risk Index flags significant tail risk near expiration, warranting caution that this thin market may not reflect true consensus probability for such a straightforward physical measurement.
Resolution rules
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 460 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCO2LEVEL-30-460 yes 100