How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. The market is pricing in a 92% probability that atmospheric CO2 will reach 440 ppm by end of 2029, reflecting scientific consensus on continued emissions, though the extreme 141.4% implied yield on the No side suggests significant skepticism among contrarian bettors.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 92% probability that atmospheric CO2 will reach 440 ppm by end of 2029, reflecting scientific consensus on continued emissions, though the extreme 141.4% implied yield on the No side suggests significant skepticism among contrarian bettors. With only $546 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 9¢ spread, this is an illiquid market where the price may not reflect true consensus—the 5.1% Yes yield is modest given the long 1,355-day timeframe and near-certain outcome. The recent price decline from 86¢ to 84¢ over seven days, combined with a moderate cliff risk index of 5, indicates some uncertainty around the exact threshold, though current atmospheric CO2 sits around 420 ppm, making the 440 ppm target mathematically likely at historical accumulation rates.
Resolution rules
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 440 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCO2LEVEL-30-440 yes 100