How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. This market is pricing in only a 24% chance of CO2 reaching 450 ppm by end-2029, despite current concentrations around 420-422 ppm requiring just ~28 ppm additional accumulation over 3.7 years—a pace well below historical trends of 2-2.5 ppm annually.
Analysis
This market is pricing in only a 24% chance of CO2 reaching 450 ppm by end-2029, despite current concentrations around 420-422 ppm requiring just ~28 ppm additional accumulation over 3.7 years—a pace well below historical trends of 2-2.5 ppm annually. The extreme 152.6% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and minimal $667 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the wide 9¢ spread indicating low confidence in price discovery. Given that atmospheric CO2 has risen ~50 ppm over the past two decades at a relatively steady rate, the market's low probability appears disconnected from physical climate data, though the 6/10 cliff risk index and 1,355-day timeframe mean resolution uncertainty could still drive volatility.
Resolution rules
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 450 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCO2LEVEL-30-450 yes 100