How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $564 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $564 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread. The 421.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to climate trajectories—current CO2 sits around 424 ppm and grows roughly 2.5 ppm annually, implying ~437 ppm by 2030, well below the 455 ppm threshold, which may justify the low probability. The recent price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ over seven days and moderate cliff risk (16) warrant caution, as thin markets can experience sharp reversals on new information or concentrated trades.
Resolution rules
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 455 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCO2LEVEL-30-455 yes 100