How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. This market prices a 38% probability of CO2 reaching 445 ppm by end-2029, offering a notably asymmetric 43.9% annualized yield for Yes positions versus 16.5% for No—a 27.4 percentage point spread suggesting meaningful disagreement on climate trajectory.
Analysis
This market prices a 38% probability of CO2 reaching 445 ppm by end-2029, offering a notably asymmetric 43.9% annualized yield for Yes positions versus 16.5% for No—a 27.4 percentage point spread suggesting meaningful disagreement on climate trajectory. With only $798 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 6¢ spread potentially misleading for actual execution; the risk-adjusted yield of 22% reflects this illiquidity discount. Given current atmospheric CO2 sits around 420-422 ppm and has been rising roughly 2.5 ppm annually, reaching 445 ppm requires approximately 23-25 ppm growth over ~5 years—a significant acceleration from historical trends—which may explain why the market leans skeptical despite the high Yes yield attracting speculators.
Resolution rules
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 445 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCO2LEVEL-30-445 yes 100