At least 445 · How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 4
At least 445 is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 4.
Price history
31¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 445 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 445
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
At least 440 80¢
Range
3¢-80¢
Family volume
$17
Identifier
KXCO2LEVEL-30-445
Jun 22, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 4
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$17
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 445 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXCO2LEVEL-30-445
Event family
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17
Outcomes
5
Highest price
At least 440 80¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.364
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.