Above $1600 · How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1
Above $1600 is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 29¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 7 inside How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1.
Price history
11¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1600 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $1600
Rank
#6 of 7
Leader
Above $1100 22¢
Range
1¢-22¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFERT-26-1600
Jun 26, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
29¢
Reported volume
$471
Family rank
#6 of 7
7 outcomes · How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1600 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXFERT-26-1600
Event family
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above $1100 22¢
Current share
—
Above $1100
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1100
Above $1000
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1000
Above $1200
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1200
Above $1300
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1300
Above $1500
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1500
Above $1600
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1600
Above $1400
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1400
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.