What is the current probability for "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 346.6% and 63.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 30/38¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $160.61·OI $1,177.68·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

KXFERT-26-1300

7-day price112 snapshots · 11 regime

46¢30¢ current

Apr 175¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1300 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 346.6%

IY (No) 63.7%

Adj IY 254%

CRI 2

RV 3017%

VR 7.39

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	346.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	63.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	254%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3017%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.39	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.27	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Computed

4/30/2026, 11:21:28 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 11:23:51 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFERT-26-1300 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

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