How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over the past week, declining 13 cents from 77¢ to 66¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction that urea fertilizer will exceed $1,000/ton by year-end 2027.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over the past week, declining 13 cents from 77¢ to 66¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction that urea fertilizer will exceed $1,000/ton by year-end 2027. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—79.2% for Yes versus 250.3% for No—combined with elevated realized volatility of 185% and a vol ratio of 2.06, indicates substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing, though thin liquidity of just $1,712.77 open interest limits confidence in the price discovery. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in a relatively low probability of a fertilizer price spike, but the high information arrival rate of 0.5/h suggests material catalysts could shift sentiment materially.
Resolution rules
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFERT-26-1000 yes 100