Above $1000 · How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1
Above $1000 is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1.
Price history
36¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $1000
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Above $1000 27¢
Range
1¢-27¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXFERT-26-1000
Jun 26, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$18K
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXFERT-26-1000
Event family
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above $1000 27¢
Current share
—
Above $1000
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1000
Above $1100
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1100
Above $1200
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1200
Above $1300
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1300
Above $1400
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1400
Above $1500
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1500
Above $1600
kalshi · KXFERT-26-1600
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
How to Scan Prediction Market Orderbooks: Spread, Depth, and Liquidity Analysis
Practical guide to analyzing orderbook data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Learn spread, depth, liquidity scoring, and executable edge calculation.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 36% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.