How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 61% over seven days from 45¢ to 28¢, suggesting either improved fertilizer supply conditions or shifting expectations about price trajectories through 2027.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 61% over seven days from 45¢ to 28¢, suggesting either improved fertilizer supply conditions or shifting expectations about price trajectories through 2027. The 362% implied yield on the Yes side appears artificially inflated given the low probability and substantial time remaining, but is tempered by extreme realized volatility of 225% and a concerning 3/10 cliff risk index, indicating potential for sharp discontinuous moves. With only $36 in 24-hour volume against $3,283 open interest and a 6¢ spread, liquidity is thin enough that the next significant information arrival (0.3/hour) could trigger outsized price swings.
Resolution rules
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1200 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXFERT-26-1200 yes 100