SimpleFunctions

How many Attorneys General will Trump have

2 is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside How many Attorneys General will Trump have.

Price history

55¢ current

+12¢
40¢50¢
Jun 23, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Contract brief

If President Trump has exactly 2 Attorneys General, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

2

Rank

#1 of 4

Leader

2 48¢

Range

1¢-48¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXTRUMPAGCOUNT-29-2

Jul 22, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 27m ago

Implied probability

55¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 22, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 27m ago

Bid

49¢

Ask

54¢

Spread

Reported volume

$10K

Family rank

#1 of 4

4 outcomes · How many Attorneys General will Trump have

Closes

Jan 20, 2029

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

49 / 54¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
49¢5
48¢130
47¢250
32¢26
31¢250
AskSize
54¢5
55¢125
57¢250
76¢8
77¢66

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If President Trump has exactly 2 Attorneys General, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 20, 2029

Identifier

KXTRUMPAGCOUNT-29-2

SF Signal
SF Index
18.94
Regime
neutral

Event family

How many Attorneys General will Trump have.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

4

Highest price

2 48¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

43.3%

IY (No)

36.9%

Adj IY

19%

CRI

1

Overround

-0.3%

LAS

0.13

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

43.3%
36.9%
Adj IY
19%
1
Overround
-0.3%
LAS
0.13

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.