How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Leader sits at 53% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
3
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
852 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Analysis
This probability estimates whether Trump will have appointed exactly two Attorneys General during his tenure, currently priced at 53% likelihood. The market is weighing whether Trump's current or next Attorney General appointment will remain in place or whether additional personnel changes will occur. Key factors include the stability of the current AG, Trump's historical appointment patterns, potential scandals or resignations, and Senate confirmation dynamics. The resolution will depend on counting the total number of distinct individuals serving as Attorney General under Trump by the end of his administration, making any future resignation, firing, or planned replacement a critical catalyst that could shift probabilities significantly.
- ›Current Attorney General's tenure status and signals about planned departure or continuation
- ›Trump's appointment history with cabinet positions, particularly turnover rates in key roles like Attorney General
- ›Pending Senate confirmations or nominations that would indicate additional AG appointments
- ›Investigations, scandals, or political pressures that could trigger unexpected resignations or terminations
- ›End date of Trump's current term or administration as the resolution deadline
What moved the line
- Sep 192↑45pp8→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182↓20pp28→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (53% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
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The market for the next White House Press Secretary is the single highest-volume market in the entire dataset, with Maria Bartiromo leading at 14¢. Other Trump-focused markets on resignation and impeachment are also active, signaling intense trader interest in the political landscape.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.