How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
3
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
914 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Analysis
This probability reflects market confidence that Trump will have served exactly 3 distinct Attorneys General by a specified date in 2026. The current 37% reflects a relatively uncertain outcome, with a 29% probability for an alternative count. The outcome depends primarily on whether the current AG remains in post or faces replacement due to resignation, firing, or internal administration changes. The key uncertainty centers on personnel stability within the administration and whether any major legal or political events trigger an AG transition. The resolution date and exact definitions of "distinct" AGs in the contract terms will directly determine the outcome, making precise timing of any potential departure critical to the final count.
- ›Current AG tenure length and stated administration plans regarding the position
- ›Whether resignation, forced departure, or scheduled departure occurs before contract resolution date
- ›Number of AGs already serving under Trump since January 2025 and historical appointment patterns
- ›Contract resolution date specificity and definition of what constitutes a distinct AG for counting purposes
- ›Any announced leadership changes or public statements from Trump regarding AG continuity or transition plans
What moved the line
- Jul 152↑7pp42→49¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
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- Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administrationlast 3% · 20d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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