Will Alec Bohm record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

The prediction market displays a flat yield curve across all 171 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical 58-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities exhibit extreme dispersion rather than a traditional curve structure. YES probabilities range from 1.0% (BBATY7, CCORREA1, JDOMINGUEZ24) to 99.0% (EDELACRUZ44, JWOOD29, MVARGAS20, PCROWARMSTRONG4, WCONTRERAS40), reflecting individual player-level variation rather than term structure dynamics. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the 1-4% range for multiple players, while the most expensive hover near 99%. Trading volume remains minimal across most markets, with only a handful showing 24-hour volumes exceeding $100, suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect true consensus pricing. The flat tenor structure prevents traditional yield curve analysis, but the wide probability dispersion reveals the market's primary focus: differentiated assessment of individual player performance rather than timing uncertainty. Since all contracts resolve on the same date 58 days forward, the market is essentially pricing the probability that each specific player will hit a certain home run threshold during the 2026 MLB season. The concentration of 99% probabilities on established stars (Judge, Trout, Betts, Altuve) and 1-4% probabilities on bench players or prospects indicates the market confidently distinguishes between likely and unlikely outcomes based on player caliber and playing time expectations. The lack of tenor variation suggests this event family does not contemplate resolution uncertainty—only outcome uncertainty at a fixed future date.