Will the team with the last pick of the draft select a Linebacker with the last pick
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
18 contracts
Top contract
24¢
$5K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will a team” vs “What will”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will a team
Will a team with below 3% odds win the #1 overall pick?: Below 3% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-0-3
Will a team with between 3% and 8% odds win the #1 overall pick?: Between 3% and 8% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-3-8
Will a team with at least 14% odds win the #1 overall pick?: At least 14% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-14-100
Will a team with between 9% and 13% odds win the #1 overall pick?: Between 9% and 13% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-9-13
Cluster 2
What will
Cluster 3
Will any play-in team advance to the Conference Finals of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs
Cluster 4
Will Shifters win the Shifters vs. Team Heretics League of Legends match
Will Shifters win the Shifters vs. Team Heretics League of Legends match?: Shifters
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031100SHFTTH-SHFT
Cluster 5
Will Ausar Thompson be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 1st Team
Cluster 6
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: Man Utd
KXEPLTOP4-26-MUN
Cluster 7
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026
Cluster 8
Will a protest within the United States that draws a combined estimated attendance of at least 250,000 people across all locations be confirmed
Cluster 9
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Florida be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 11
Will Cade Cunningham be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 1st Team
Will Cade Cunningham be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 1st Team?: Cade Cunningham
KXNBA1STTEAM-26-CCUN
Cluster 12
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Jul 2027
KXTVSEASONRELEASETHELASTOFUS-27-JUL
Cluster 13
Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 1st Team
Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 1st Team?: Jaylen Brown
KXNBA1STTEAM-26-JBRO
Cluster 14
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
What moved the line
- Apr 26Cade Cunningham↓24pp69→45¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Cade Cunningham↑14pp45→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires↓14pp61→47¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires↑12pp47→59¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Cade Cunningham↑11pp59→70¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.