Will the team with the last pick of the draft select a Linebacker with the last pick
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$392
6 contracts
Closes
Sep 7, 2028
717 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026” vs “Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 2
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 3
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026
Cluster 4
Will Florida be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Cluster 5
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Jul 2027
KXTVSEASONRELEASETHELASTOFUS-27-JUL
Cluster 6
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Stays with Buffalo or Retires
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-27JALLEN-BUF
Analysis
This market predicts whether the team selecting last in the 2026 NFL Draft will use that pick on a linebacker. At 52%, the probability reflects near-even odds, suggesting substantial uncertainty about both draft strategy and available player positions. The current probability level reflects the unpredictable nature of the 29th overall pick—teams often use late first-round picks to address positional needs that persist after earlier rounds, and linebacker demand varies annually based on free agency activity and injury history. The primary factor driving this probability is which teams hold the last pick and their specific roster gaps. The resolution event is the 2026 NFL Draft itself, where the final pick will be announced and its player position will become clear.
- ›The team with the last pick's existing linebacker depth and defensive scheme priorities at draft time
- ›Overall supply and demand for linebackers in the 2026 draft class relative to other positions
- ›How many elite linebacker prospects are available and reach the late first round without being selected earlier
- ›Whether significant linebacker injuries or free agency departures occur during the offseason before the draft
- ›Historical patterns of how often late first-round picks are used on linebacker positions across recent NFL drafts
What moved the line
- Sep 18Florida↓36pp68→32¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Yes↓18pp31→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Yes↑8pp16→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 172↓7pp62→55¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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