SimpleFunctions

What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Barack Hussein Obama is priced at 60¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 61¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.

Price history

60¢ current

+14¢
50¢75¢
Jun 9, 2026Jun 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump says Barack Hussein Obama as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Barack Hussein Obama

Rank

#6 of 16

Leader

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating 76¢

Range

5¢-76¢

Family volume

$5K

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-BARA

Jun 28, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 7m ago

Implied probability

60¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 28, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 7m ago

Bid

61¢

Ask

65¢

Spread

24h volume

$586

Family rank

#6 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Family volume

$5K

Orderbook snapshot

61 / 65¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
61¢9
60¢18
56¢9
53¢1
52¢4
AskSize
65¢17
66¢14
67¢22
68¢29
74¢161

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump says Barack Hussein Obama as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-BARA

SF Signal
SF Index
1373.11
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

561.3%

IY (No)

1373.1%

Adj IY

1373%

CRI

2

RV

1131%

VR

4.12

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

561.3%
1373.1%
Adj IY
1373%
2
RV
1131%
VR
4.12
IAR
1.7/h
Overround
12.5%

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.