SimpleFunctions

What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Israel / Israeli is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.

Price history

44¢ current

+37¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 9, 2026Jun 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump says Israel / Israeli as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Israel / Israeli

Rank

#13 of 16

Leader

Fake News 83¢

Range

7¢-83¢

Family volume

$7K

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-ISRA

Jun 26, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 26m ago

Implied probability

44¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 26m ago

Bid

38¢

Ask

45¢

Spread

24h volume

$75

Family rank

#13 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Family volume

$7K

Orderbook snapshot

38 / 45¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
38¢5
37¢9
8¢2
7¢38
6¢258
AskSize
45¢171
46¢227
61¢1.5K
64¢500
66¢263

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump says Israel / Israeli as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-ISRA

SF Signal
SF Index
1389.18
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1389.2%

IY (No)

521.8%

Adj IY

1389%

CRI

2

RV

1225%

VR

3.57

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1389.2%
521.8%
Adj IY
1389%
2
RV
1225%
VR
3.57
IAR
1.1/h
Overround
12.8%

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.