What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026
Radical Left is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 66¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.
Price history
65¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump says Radical Left as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Radical Left
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Fake News 88¢
Range
6¢-88¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-RADI
Jun 21, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
66¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$30
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
66 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump says Radical Left as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-RADI
Event family
What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Fake News 88¢
Current share
2%
Fake News
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-FAKE
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-BARA
Radical Left
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-RADI
Stock Market
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-STOC
Iran (3+ times)
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-IRAN
Ballroom
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-BALL
Israel / Israeli
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-ISRA
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-HOTT
China
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-CHIN
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-TDS
Newsom / Newscum
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-NEWS
AI / Artificial Intelligence
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-AI
Movie Star
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-MOVI
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-AFFO
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-CRYP
Event does not qualify
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-NQE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
How Trump’s 2026 foreign policy toward Latin America and Venezuela is reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and military risk—and what prediction markets are pricing in.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 65% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.