SimpleFunctions

What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Event does not qualify is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #16 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.

Price history

4¢ current

2¢
0¢10¢20¢
Jun 9, 2026Jun 26, 2026

Contract brief

If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Event does not qualify

Rank

#16 of 16

Leader

Fake News 82¢

Range

5¢-82¢

Family volume

$8K

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-NQE

Jun 26, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 17m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 17m ago

Bid

Ask

10¢

Spread

24h volume

$255

Family rank

#16 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Family volume

$8K

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 10¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
7¢10
6¢5
4¢292
3¢500
2¢997
AskSize
10¢10
12¢18
13¢146
16¢300
17¢10

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-NQE

SF Signal
SF Index
16193.06
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

16193.1%

IY (No)

44.9%

Adj IY

16193%

CRI

19

RV

2971%

VR

3.01

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

16193.1%
44.9%
Adj IY
16193%
19
RV
2971%
VR
3.01
IAR
0.9/h
Overround
12.6%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogpolitics

Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

How Trump’s 2026 foreign policy toward Latin America and Venezuela is reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and military risk—and what prediction markets are pricing in.

Blogmacro

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

Blogpolitics

US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress

A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.