What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 42¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.
Price history
41¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump says TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Fake News 84¢
Range
9¢-84¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-TDS
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
42¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$806
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
42 / 48¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump says TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-TDS
Event family
What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Fake News 84¢
Current share
14%
Fake News
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-FAKE
Oil
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-OIL
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-HOTT
Sleepy Joe
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-SLEE
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-BARA
Israel / Israeli
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-ISRA
Iran (3+ times)
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-IRAN
MAGA / Make America Great Again
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-MAGA
Newsom / Newscum
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-NEWS
China
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-CHIN
Autopen
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-AUTO
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-TDS
Kamala
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-KAMA
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-CRYP
Epstein
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-EPST
Event does not qualify
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-NQE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.