Which company has the best AI model end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
117 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Cluster 2
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public
Analysis
This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Google will be identified as having the best AI model by end of April 2026. The assessment is primarily shaped by the coding model category, where market participants are pricing Anthropic (57¢) as the current front-runner, with OpenAI (35¢) as a strong competitor. The probability would increase if Google demonstrates significant coding performance improvements or releases a model that outperforms competitors on established benchmarks. It would decrease if rival companies release notably superior models or achieve better results on standardized coding tasks. The main resolution event is the scheduled assessment at April 30, 2026, when models will be evaluated against performance metrics. The market is currently divided on leadership, with no single company commanding overwhelming confidence, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about technical capabilities across competitors over the next ten months.
- ›Anthropic currently prices significantly higher (57¢) than Google (5¢) in the direct coding model comparison, indicating market belief in Anthropic's technical lead
- ›OpenAI holds 35¢ of the coding model contract, establishing three-way competition where no player has dominant consensus confidence
- ›Google's 5¢ pricing on its own coding model contract contrasts with its 22¢ overall average, suggesting the market views Google as less likely to lead specifically in coding versus other AI categories
- ›The deadline is April 30, 2026, making this a 10-month forecast window during which multiple new model releases and benchmark publications could substantially shift probabilities
- ›Trading volume concentration on Anthropic (57¢ contract, $916 24h volume) versus Google's contract ($2576 24h volume) suggests disagreement about evaluation criteria or timeline
What moved the line
- Sep 5Anthropic↑11pp58→69¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5OpenAI↓9pp29→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Anthropic↑8pp50→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4OpenAI↓7pp36→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2OpenAI↑6pp25→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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