SimpleFunctions
13 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 8 min ago

Sheffield United FC vs. Preston North End FC - More Markets

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 49%, Polymarket at 32% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.

Implied probability

48%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

49%

12 contracts

Polymarket

32%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

17pp

wide divergence

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$124K

13 contracts

Top contract

94¢

$45K · Kalshi

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 47% (25 days, 25 points)Aggregate: 47% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 13 contracts · 25d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 49¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 17pp spread

Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

13 clusters across 13 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Shifters win the Shifters vs. Team Heretics League of Legends match

1 contract$45K

Cluster 2

Will Fluxo W7M win the LOS vs. Fluxo W7M League of Legends match

1 contract$23K

Cluster 3

Will LOS win the LOS vs. Fluxo W7M League of Legends match

1 contract$21K

Cluster 4

Will Natus Vincere win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match

1 contract$16K

Cluster 5

Will G2 Esports win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match

1 contract$9K

Cluster 6

Will LYON win the Sentinels vs. LYON League of Legends match

1 contract$4K

Cluster 7

Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end

1 contract$3K

Cluster 8

Will FlyQuest win the Shopify Rebellion vs. FlyQuest League of Legends match

1 contract$1K

Cluster 9

Will a protest within the United States that draws a combined estimated attendance of at least 250,000 people across all locations be confirmed

1 contract$1K

Cluster 10

Will KT Rolster Challengers win the DRX Challengers vs. KT Rolster Challengers League of Legends match

1 contract$881

Cluster 11

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon

1 contract$557

Cluster 12

Will DRX Challengers win the DRX Challengers vs. KT Rolster Challengers League of Legends match

1 contract$489

Cluster 13

Will Preston North End be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 3KT Rolster Challengers24pp3559¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2KT Rolster Challengers20pp1535¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3LOS11pp4657¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3DRX Challengers11pp2435¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2LOS9pp5546¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.