Sheffield United FC vs. Preston North End FC - More Markets

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects a 59% probability that the United States will be the next country to send humans to the Moon. The current assessment is shaped primarily by NASA's Artemis program timeline, which targets lunar human missions in the mid-to-late 2020s, and the technical readiness of competing space programs from China and other nations. The main uncertainty centers on whether NASA will meet its stated schedule or face further delays, as has occurred historically. China's accelerating lunar program and any announcements regarding their crewed mission timeline could significantly shift the probability. The next major catalyst will be specific updates from NASA regarding Artemis launch dates and progress milestones, as well as any public statements from Chinese space authorities about their human lunar mission plans. Resolution will ultimately depend on which country's astronauts actually land on the Moon first.

• ›NASA's Artemis program currently targets crewed lunar missions between 2025-2027, though the agency has a history of schedule delays on major projects
• ›China's space program has demonstrated rapid capability advancement and has publicly stated intentions for human lunar missions, with some estimates suggesting potential missions in the late 2020s
• ›SLS and Orion spacecraft development status directly impacts NASA's ability to execute on stated timelines
• ›Regulatory, funding, or technical setbacks could delay any scheduled missions by months or years
• ›Independent verification of crewed lunar landing will serve as the definitive resolution event, requiring successful landing and return of astronauts

What moved the line

• Jun 21United States↑4pp55→59¢ · Kalshi

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