SimpleFunctions
1 source contract·Kalshi 1·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2031 · 1653d

Sheffield United FC vs. Preston North End FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 58% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

58%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

58%

1 contract

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$132

1 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2031

1653 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 59% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 59% on 2026-06-22
Aggregate of 1 contract · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon

1 contract$132

Analysis

This market indicates a 37% probability that the Sheffield United vs. Preston North End match on 2026-05-15 will produce more than 4.5 total goals. At this probability level, the market is pricing the outcome as unlikely but plausible. The current pricing reflects typical offensive output for these Championship-level clubs and typical match conditions. Factors affecting this probability include recent goal-scoring trends for both teams, defensive performance statistics, head-to-head historical patterns, and any lineup or injury news affecting key offensive or defensive players. The resolution is straightforward: the final whistle will definitively show whether combined goals exceeded four. Betting volume and contract pricing suggest moderate but not exceptional confidence in either direction, with the under-4.5 outcome favored at present odds. Upcoming team news or betting flow could shift this probability meaningfully before match kickoff.

  • Sheffield United and Preston North End's combined average goals per match in their most recent 10 games
  • Injury status of key offensive players for both teams leading into match day
  • Historical head-to-head goal totals in direct matchups between these clubs over the past two seasons
  • Weather conditions, field conditions, or tactical adjustments announced in pre-match coverage
  • Closing odds and volume movement on related betting markets in the 24-48 hours before kickoff

What moved the line

  • Jun 18United States8pp4755¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 17United States4pp5147¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 21United States4pp5559¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (58% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.