Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026
Bill Gates is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 52¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026.
Price history
31¢ current
−31¢Contract brief
If Bill Gates is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bill Gates
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump 58¢
Range
11¢-58¢
Family volume
$136
Identifier
KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BGAT
Jun 23, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
52¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$14
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$136
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 52¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Bill Gates is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BGAT
Event family
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$136
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump 58¢
Current share
10%
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-DJT
Prince Andrew
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-PAND
Bill Clinton
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BCLI
Joe Biden
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-JBID
Hillary Clinton
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-HCLI
Bill Gates
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BGAT
Kevin Spacey
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-KSPA
Ehud Barak
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-EBAR
Leonardo DiCaprio
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-LDIC
Stephen Hawking
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-SHAW
Kamala Harris
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-KHAR
Michael Jackson
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-MJAC
Rupert Murdoch
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-RMUR
Alec Baldwin
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-ABAL
Barack Obama
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BOBA
Naomi Campbell
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-NCAM
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: What Inflation Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In
Deep‑dive on Federal Reserve interest rates in 2026: SEP projections, inflation and unemployment paths, QT endgame, global central bank context, and what prediction markets are pricing for Fed cuts, inflation, and recession—plus actionable trading setups.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 31% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.