Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Woody Allen will be named in Epstein-related documents released during 2026, currently priced at 63%. The main drivers are the scope and timing of judicial releases mandated by settled litigation, combined with uncertainty about how extensively the documents will implicate specific public figures. Market pricing suggests moderate confidence in Allen's naming, with notable divergence from other high-profile names—Joe Biden at 44%, Prince Andrew at 56%, and Kevin Spacey at 16%. The primary catalyst is the actual release schedule of sealed documents, which has faced multiple delays. Trading volumes suggest selective interest, with Biden-related contracts showing highest liquidity despite lower probability. Resolution depends entirely on whether released materials specifically identify Allen by name or reference in connection with Epstein.

• ›Document release scope and timing remain uncertain—prior judicial schedules have slipped, creating ambiguity about what gets released and when in 2026
• ›Market assigns Allen higher probability (63%) than Biden (44%) despite Biden's higher public profile, suggesting contract traders see specific documentary evidence relevant to Allen
• ›Prince Andrew at 56% and Biden at 44% create an inverted hierarchy from political prominence, indicating market confidence in particular documentary content rather than pure name recognition
• ›Trading volume concentration in Biden and Biden-related contracts ($757 24h) versus minimal volume on secondary names ($18-$72) suggests retail vs. informed trader positioning
• ›Resolution requires explicit naming—indirect references, alleged connections, or appearance in flight logs would require clear identification to satisfy contract terms

What moved the line

• Sep 19Bill Clinton↓8pp39→31¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Stephen Hawking↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Naomi Campbell↑6pp26→32¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Donald Trump↓5pp56→51¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Donald Trump↑5pp48→53¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds