Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one individual will be named in the Epstein-related documents that the U.S. government has committed to releasing during 2026. The question hinges on both the scope and timing of document releases, as well as how broadly 'named' is interpreted. Currently, markets are split on this outcome, with Kalshi traders pricing it 14 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants, suggesting disagreement about release schedules and content. The main resolution driver will be the actual documents released through 2026, which are subject to court deadlines and potential extensions. Markets are closely tracking whether any material documents emerge before year-end and whether they contain identifiable allegations or associations beyond previously public information.

• ›Timing of court-ordered releases: Documents are subject to ongoing litigation with specific judicial deadlines that may be accelerated, delayed, or extended
• ›Definition of 'named': Whether the resolution criteria include any mention, direct allegation, business transaction, or only substantive criminal associations will significantly affect outcomes
• ›Content threshold: Markets diverge on whether documents must name individuals not previously identified in released materials or whether any naming satisfies the criteria
• ›Volume and redaction rates: Government redactions for national security or witness protection could substantially reduce the number of identifiable names in released documents
• ›Cross-venue probability gap of 14 percentage points suggests material uncertainty about either release likelihood or interpretation of resolution rules

What moved the line

• Jun 22Alec Baldwin↓29pp53→24¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Ehud Barak↑22pp18→40¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Barack Obama↓19pp31→12¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Bill Gates↑17pp34→51¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Ehud Barak↓16pp40→24¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds