Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026
Stephen Hawking is priced at 29¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026.
Price history
29¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If Stephen Hawking is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Stephen Hawking
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
Bill Clinton 59¢
Range
13¢-59¢
Family volume
$417
Identifier
KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-SHAW
Jun 26, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$231
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$417
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Stephen Hawking is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-SHAW
Event family
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$417
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Bill Clinton 59¢
Current share
0%
Bill Clinton
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BCLI
Prince Andrew
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-PAND
Hillary Clinton
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-HCLI
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-DJT
Woody Allen
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-WALL
Leonardo DiCaprio
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-LDIC
Joe Biden
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-JBID
Kevin Spacey
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-KSPA
Bill Gates
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BGAT
Ehud Barak
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-EBAR
Stephen Hawking
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-SHAW
Barack Obama
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-BOBA
Alec Baldwin
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-ABAL
Kamala Harris
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-KHAR
Michael Jackson
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-MJAC
Rupert Murdoch
kalshi · KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-RMUR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.