What is the current probability for "Who will IPO before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will IPO before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1650.8% and 12.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will IPO before 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will IPO before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This Rippling IPO market shows a notable 2¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi at 14¢ versus Polymarket's 12¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences.

█████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

12¢

Bid/Ask 8/12¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $6,287.17·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXIPO-26-RIPPLING

7-day price18 snapshots · 4 regime

12¢8¢ current

Apr 117¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This Rippling IPO market shows a notable 2¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi at 14¢ versus Polymarket's 12¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences. The extremely high implied yield of 1,268% on the Yes side reflects the low absolute price, but the modest 24-hour volume of $165 and thin 4¢ spread indicate illiquidity that could amplify slippage on larger positions. The 7-point price rise over seven days (7¢ to 10¢) combined with 259 days to expiry suggests growing confidence in a pre-2027 IPO, though the high cliff risk index of 9 warns of potential binary resolution volatility.

Resolution rules

If Rippling confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1650.8%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 413%

CRI 12

Overround 6.0%

LAS 0.50

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1650.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	413%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.50	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:45:57 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:38:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPO-26-RIPPLING yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →