Who will win the next presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. Jon Ossoff's presidential odds are priced at just 5¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 673.5% for Yes positions, reflecting extreme long-shot status despite 1,301 days until resolution.
Analysis
Jon Ossoff's presidential odds are priced at just 5¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 673.5% for Yes positions, reflecting extreme long-shot status despite 1,301 days until resolution. The market shows healthy open interest of $1.45M against modest 24-hour volume of $1,515, with a tight 1¢ spread suggesting reasonable liquidity for a niche political contract. The elevated cliff risk index of 24 warrants caution, as the long time horizon and low probability create potential for sharp repricing if Ossoff's political trajectory shifts materially.
Resolution rules
If Jon Ossoff is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-JOSS yes 100