What is the current probability for "Who will win the next presidential election?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 19¢ (19% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 7, 2029. 1296 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the next presidential election?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 120.1% and 6.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the next presidential election?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the next presidential election?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. This market prices J.D.

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19¢

Bid/Ask 19/20¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $7,163.88·OI $1,445,537.7·Closes Nov 7, 2029·1296d remaining

KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN

7-day price6 snapshots · 90 regime

21¢19¢ current

Apr 1019¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This market prices J.D. Vance's 2029 presidential chances at just 20%, offering an exceptionally high 119.6% implied yield on the Yes side despite over three years until resolution—a significant risk premium reflecting substantial uncertainty and tail risk. The 1¢ spread and $1.4M open interest suggest reasonable liquidity, though the modest $7,349 daily volume indicates limited trading activity for such a high-yield contract. The recent 1¢ price decline and neutral regime score suggest the market is consolidating, though the 4 Cliff Risk Index warrants monitoring for potential sharp moves as the 2029 election cycle intensifies.

Resolution rules

If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 120.1%

IY (No) 6.6%

Adj IY 57%

CRI 4

Overround -0.3%

LAS 0.05

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	120.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	57%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:29:10 PM

Observability lowEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →