Who will win the next presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. This Mark Kelly presidential contract is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome at 3¢, implying just a 3% probability despite over 1.2 billion dollars in open interest and 1,298 days until resolution.
Analysis
This Mark Kelly presidential contract is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome at 3¢, implying just a 3% probability despite over 1.2 billion dollars in open interest and 1,298 days until resolution. The 909% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and reflects the steep odds, though the minimal $367 in 24-hour volume suggests severe illiquidity that could make the price unreliable for actual trading. The sharp divergence between the 909% Yes yield and 0.9% No yield, combined with a moderate 32 Cliff Risk Index, indicates this contract carries significant tail risk and potential for sudden repricing as the 2029 election approaches.
Resolution rules
If Mark Kelly is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-MKEL yes 100