Gavin Newsom in the next presidential election
Gavin Newsom is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Who will win the next presidential election.
Price history
14¢ current
Contract brief
If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Gavin Newsom
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Marco Rubio 19¢
Range
1¢-19¢
Family volume
$209K
Identifier
KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS
Jun 25, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$25K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will win the next presidential election
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
Family volume
$209K
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
Identifier
KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS
Event family
Who will win the next presidential election.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$209K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Marco Rubio 19¢
Current share
12%
Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-MRUB
J.D. Vance
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN
Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-AOCA
Jon Ossoff
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-JOSS
Kamala Harris
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-KHAR
Andy Beshear
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-ABES
Pete Buttigieg
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-PBUT
Donald J. Trump
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Tucker Carlson
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-TCAR
Mark Kelly
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-MKEL
J.B. Pritzker
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-JPRI
Ron DeSantis
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-RDES
Ro Khanna
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-RKHA
Wes Moore
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-WMOO
Rahm Emanuel
kalshi · KXPRESPERSON-28-REMA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.