Who will win the next presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. This market is pricing an extremely low 3% probability for Kamala Harris winning the 2029 presidential election, generating an outsized 908.5% implied yield on Yes positions despite over $1.1M in open interest.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low 3% probability for Kamala Harris winning the 2029 presidential election, generating an outsized 908.5% implied yield on Yes positions despite over $1.1M in open interest. The massive yield asymmetry (908.5% vs 0.9%) combined with a moderate 32 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant tail risk, though the stable 7-day price action and neutral regime indicate this isn't reflecting imminent market stress. With 1,299 days to expiration and only $12K in daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially vulnerable to sharp moves on political developments.
Resolution rules
If Kamala Harris is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-KHAR yes 100