Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $7k open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $7k open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in. The 686.5% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of low-liquidity prediction markets, though the 5% probability itself appears reasonable given Rao's current position as a federal appeals court judge without an announced vacancy. With over 1,000 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market has ample time for material developments, but the zero spread and flat 7-day price action indicate minimal recent trading activity or conviction shifts.
Resolution rules
If Neomi Rao is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOURT-29-NR yes 100