Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-reward dynamics, with the Yes side offering a 325% implied yield against a mere 4% for No, reflecting the low 10% probability assigned to Thapar's appointment.
Analysis
This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-reward dynamics, with the Yes side offering a 325% implied yield against a mere 4% for No, reflecting the low 10% probability assigned to Thapar's appointment. The $8,971 open interest paired with just $6 in 24-hour volume suggests illiquid positioning where large trades could move prices significantly, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates substantial binary event risk concentrated near the January 2029 expiration. The flat 7-day price action at 10¢ despite over three years remaining until resolution suggests the market has settled into a stable equilibrium, though the 1¢ spread is relatively tight for such a speculative contract.
Resolution rules
If Amul Thapar is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOURT-29-AT yes 100