Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. James Ho is priced at a modest 10% probability with over four years until expiry, yet the Yes contract shows an exceptionally high 325% implied yield, suggesting significant tail-risk premium for a low-probability event with substantial time value.
Analysis
James Ho is priced at a modest 10% probability with over four years until expiry, yet the Yes contract shows an exceptionally high 325% implied yield, suggesting significant tail-risk premium for a low-probability event with substantial time value. The market displays concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11.75k open interest and a zero spread, indicating potential difficulty executing trades at the quoted price. The sharp 25% price increase over seven days (8¢ to 10¢) combined with a high cliff risk index of 9 warrants attention to whether recent judicial developments or political shifts are driving renewed interest in Ho's candidacy.
Resolution rules
If James Ho is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOURT-29-JH yes 100