Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?

This market is severely illiquid with only $98 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3¢ spread. The extreme 2211.7% implied yield on Yes suggests the market is dramatically underpricing the probability of five gubernatorial losses, though this may reflect genuine uncertainty rather than mispricing given the thin liquidity and 259 days to expiry. The neutral regime score and moderate 16 cliff risk index indicate no immediate catalysts, but traders should be cautious about size given the minimal order book depth.

Resolution rules

If at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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