Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 13¢, implying only a 1-in-8 chance that zero governors lose re-election in 2026—a historically improbable scenario given typical gubernatorial turnover.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 13¢, implying only a 1-in-8 chance that zero governors lose re-election in 2026—a historically improbable scenario given typical gubernatorial turnover. The astronomical 1427% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing, though the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $72 open interest suggest this is an illiquid micro-market where the price may not reflect genuine consensus. With 259 days to expiration and a 10/10 cliff risk index, this contract faces significant event concentration risk around the November 2026 elections, making the wide 6¢ spread and extreme yield figures potentially unreliable indicators of true probability.
Resolution rules
If exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-0 yes 100