Will exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is extremely illiquid with only $195 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is extremely illiquid with only $195 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields—2,210.9% for Yes versus 9.0% for No—reflect the binary nature of an exact-count outcome where the Yes case requires a precise scenario (exactly 4 of roughly 36 gubernatorial races resulting in incumbent defeat). With 259 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 16, this appears to be a niche contract with minimal market participation, suggesting traders should demand significant liquidity premiums before committing capital.
Resolution rules
If exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-4 yes 100